...oil = housing...

Just like the housing market 5 years ago, the veil of confidence in our near 100% reliance on oil is starting to fade, quickly. We actually believed the Housing boom was a natural result of momentum, an economic boom in a time where we felt we were invincible, and it came crashing down on us so hard, throwing the entire global economy into tumult, and leaving us with a giant % of the population still unemployed, still wondering how they'll get out from their overwhelming mortgages.

In short, there was no backup plan for the Housing boom - everyone was reaping the benefits without thinking about the consequences.

Oil is the same exact thing. BP, and hundreds of others of companies, are allowed to stick giant tubes into the earth, drag up all the oil they need to as quickly as they possibly can, and it seems that nobody, no entity, no governing body, and certainly not the world's population, asks the following question:

"But what if it all goes wrong?"

Well, it's all going wrong. Today they are going to try to plug up a gushing oil leak with mud and cement. Mud and cement. They are saying it is 70% likely it'll be successful. It is 30% that it won't be, and they have no idea how to fix it.

There really was no consideration taken if things went badly, and they have, and we are all left to deal with the consequences. We all assumed, didn't we, that there would be a backup plan. If the oil pipes leak, or crack, or if a rig blows up, we have a contingency, right?

No, we don't. I didn't know that, did you?

I can't get this scene out of my head: You walk into a grocery story and you are in the milk aisle, and all of a sudden an 8 year old boy with his mom starts throwing all the eggs, smashing all the cartons of milk, spilling cottage cheese on the cereal boxes and spreading mustard all over the deli meat...and the parent looks around at everyone in the supermarket and says, "boy, we sure do have a problem on our hands, don't we!?"

BP is acting like they have now joined the rest of us as victims, and actually, it appears that way. BP is acting like they are only responsible by default - that they are only responsible b/c they are the only ones responsible enough to fix it. Except they can't fix it, either.

I saw someone from the Coast Guard on TV the other night saying that BP was the only group qualified to come up with a solution, but they can't find one. What happened to us? Are you telling me the smartest of our Army Corp. of Engineers cannot takeover with hostility BP's assets, tools and brainpower and find a way to plug this leak?

It leads me to the final conclusion that there is absolutely no solution to this. Oil will gush in perpetuity, until there is no oil left to gush, which, of course, nobody knows when that wlll be. I asked Alison and Wizzy last night if we will be dead by the time oil reaches the beaches of Montauk, Duxbury, Santa Monica, etc...

But I think I'll live to see it. I am starting to completely believe I am going to live to see the time where our oceans are overtaken by this demonic sludge.

All of this leaves me so hostile towards Cape Codders who still are mad about their view being ruined by Cape Wind. The ultimate irony will be when their precious views are "marred" by the amazing view of natural wind power turbines...combined with the fact that they are forced to dip their toes in jet black ocean sludge.

...Potter at Universal, Orlando...

As many of you know, Universal Studios is opening a major addition to their Orlando Islands of Adventure Theme Park, which is based on the Wizarding World of Harry Potter. The addition opens in June to the public, but my mom who is a part of the Travel & Tourism Industry was able to view the theme park in a preview capacity.

While she wasn't able to see and do everything that will be open in June to the public, what she saw sounds eerily like what a "post" would sound like from a first year at Hogwarts to their parents at home...

Check out my mom's email below about her experience. After reading this, I'm pretty sure a November trip will be in order for me & Al...

It was all I could imagine it would be. Just walking through the gate into Hogsmeade it really did look like this:

only everything was closer together. The shops were so much fun, seeing all the merchandise you read about on the shelves… priceless. I bought Pumpkin Juice (which was delicious as I had it for breakfast the next day) Bertie Botts every flavor beans, chocolate frogs and some black licorice for Dad that was supposed to be the clippings from a Chinese man’s beard. The shop with clothing was making a killing as many Potter fans were buying Quidditch jerseys, etc. and the wand shop also had an incredible amount of people looking if not buying. There was a line of folks waiting to see what wand would choose them but I didn’t wait. Lots of stuffed cats and rats and owls for sale. The restaurant was called Hogshead and although not open we could walk through to see the inside and the menu which was loaded with typical English food choices. The tables and chairs were made of heavy, dark wood… very pub-like.

The major ride wasn’t open but it is in within Hogwarts which is at the end of the street and built up on a huge stone ledge and we were able to walk through the ride that started in the greenhouse and went through the school corridors which included the talking pictures in frames. There were a lot of accoutrements to look at as you wove your way through the halls and, at one point, Dumbledore (hologram as opposed to audio animatronics) offers his advice from a balcony in his room. Just before you would get on the ride (which I believe is MOM-like and 3-D) Harry, Ron & Hermione speak to you from a balcony just before using the invisibility cloak. Upon exiting the ride you go through more hallways with newspaper articles that move and more talking portraits. Moaning Myrtle also speaks from the girl’s public convenience!

I would say it’s definitely worth a visit.

...2010 Cape Relay...

I am not going to do a traditional writeup of the weekend of the Cape Relay - it feels like it'd be too tedious and I honestly don't think I could paste together all the events in any kind of real order, but I do think I owe the weekend some kind of posterity, aside from the flip videos I have stored on the old hard drive.

The Cape Relay for those who don't know, was/is a 12 person relay running race that started in Quincy, MA and went 198 miles (or so) to Provincetown, MA, which ran overnight and without a break.

We threw together a squad that really had 1 common thread - every single person on the team is a great person. Nobody cared how fast anyone could run (I'll get to that later), and some of the people didn't know each other well, and had only met once or twice, or maybe not at all, but that didn't slow our team down at all in any way.

In alphabetical order by first name: Allan MacLean, Alison Fisher, Andy Wurtzel, Brian Cullinan, Jeff Graham, Josh Shea, Kristen Graham, Lauren Epstein, Marc Johnson, Nick Fisher, Rich Sanda & Steve O'Keefe made up the team. If you know any or all of them, you cannot argue that 26 hours in a row with this group, with basically no sleep, is a recipe for awesome awesomeness.

Here are a few things that come to mind that serve as big time highlights of the weekend:

1. The weather was incredible. As a matter of fact, the single biggest "i am not sure if i want to do it ever again" factor is that the weather could not be better than it was. yes, it was a TAD hot on Sunday, but overnight we had temps in the 50s and I, for one, sweat like a pig during my 4.8 mile run at 2:45 AM through Marstons Mills.

2. Running alone at night in the dark, but knowing you are part of a collection of hundreds of teams, is a completely magical experience. You know nobody is around you, and you cannot see anyone, but you know there are at least 175 other people running somewhere within 50 miles of you, and we all have the same goal. I don't know if anyone else got choked up by that thought, but I did.

3. Our team came in 10th. We had zero, literally zero, expectations or thoughts that we'd perform on any kind of real level. But we did. We came in 10th place overall out of nearly 200 teams. That is something I still cannot understand.

4. I am not entirely sure, but I think that every single person ran their 3 legs faster than they had anticipated doing so. I know I broke my goal pace by 2 seconds/mile.

5. The team came together in a really magical way for the last 4 legs of the race. Starting with cheering on Al MacLean, and the ensuing handoff to Steveo, which led to his amazingly grueling run, was really awesome. Steve was the MVP of the weekend, in my opinion. He blasted through his first 2 runs, and then was greeted with not only the most exposed to the sun leg of the whole race, but arguably the most difficult given its 8 (or was it 9?) mile distance. Steve did it all with a smile, kept us entertained and had a great time to boot.

6. Getting 2+ hours of shuteye on the front lawn of Nauset Regional High School was really exciting. We fell asleep with barely anyone in the grass or on the lot, and ended up waking up to a sea of sleeping bags and vans. A crazy irish team talking too loud, a bunch of people looking like they had been through hell, and all of us excited about our final leg to finish off the race. I just can't describe it all.

There were plenty more highlights, there are moments I'll never forget and the pictures and video I have tell a huge story in my brain.

This is what I think I have to end this with, and I'm sorry if it comes off as preachy.

I cannot stress enough how good it feels to set some kind of goal, in this case a physical one, and accomplishing it. Furthermore, I cannot express how gratifying it is to have people around me in my life that enjoy setting and reaching goals with me. Every single person on the team had a great time, and it was because of every other person on the team.

I don't know what miraculous twists of fate occured to all of us that allowed us to land on the same small plot of earth together and become friends, but it is beyond unreasonable that we managed to find each other, not screw it up, and work on working on it together.

Thank you to the Windham Whippets, the 10th place team at the Cape Relay, 2010.

...who could/can win the NBA Finals...

First, I have to start by saying listening to Reggie Miller talk during broadcasts, and seeing his 30 For 30 on ESPN really leaves me absolutely no question as to why he didn't ever win a title. I don't care how hard he worked or how good he was at shooting - I understand all that it is a given. His sense of entitlement, his warped sense of right and wrong and what is fair and reasonable for an NBA player to expect, is so telling.

He just gave a mini-rant about how bad a call was on Carmelo Anthony - who has earned himself 7 offensive fouls in less than 4 full games. Anthony, on the previous possession grabbed the defensive rebound and threw an elbow he wasn't called for. As he comes down the court, he tries to grab a little extra space by throwing an elbow into the chest of a name/faceless Jazz player, which they basically all are.

Miller then goes on to say the call was unjustified - because of course Miller sympathizes with a "me-first" scoring machine who lives their life and runs their career as if they have the "what it takes" checklist in front of them, and are picking off only the low-hanging fruit. It takes a lot to win, it takes a team and chemistry, and I am realizing the list of teams that can win it this year is so small.

So I'm going to break down each team in the playoffs and judge them purely by if I think they can win it, and why or why not. At the end is my summary if you want to look at that. Essentially, these are my answers if someone from Portland, for example, came up to me and said, "Nick, do you think we can win it all?"

EAST:

Can Cleveland win it all? Nope, they cannot. I was, for 3 years, on the "Lebron is good enough to do it all by himself" bandwagon, but that bandwagon hit a stump, and the Donner party is eating itself here. Lebron is awesome, I can't say it any other way. But this team misses Free throws, they have a coach who simply is in way over his head, and most importantly, the guys around Lebron are not good enough.

You could argue (and I tried doing this the last few years) that Mo Williams would be a difference maker, and he can be, but only like 1 out of every 4 games. Jamison is good, but he is starting to find himself in the Jermaine O'Neal territory where everyone thinks he is good, but he has no resume to prove it. Cleveland can't win it for the same exact reason George Bailey couldn't save the whole town of Bedford Falls by himself - but there is no Kid Brother Harry to save him this time.

Can Orlando win it all? Yep, they can. Best Defensive player in the league, who drives Magic fans nuts with his fouls, but is still super-dominant. I happen to like Van Gundy, and I also really like Rashard Lewis. Jameer Nelson is playing like this is the Atlantic 10, and there is enough of a supporting cast around Dwight to make it happen.

Can Atlanta win it all? Not a chance. Maybe the only coach more inept than Mike Brown, the Hawks are a mini-Nuggets - their brains will prevent them from ever getting out of round 2 as this team is constituted presently.

Can Boston win it all? Yes. They did it before, same veteran leadership, same amazing Point Guard. The only caveat here is that Tony Allen can't be a major part of the rotation. Am I crazy, or did they not win games 2-3 without major Allen contribution? Big 3, stay out of foul trouble.

Can Miami win it all? No. If Wade is a 8.5 out of 10, nobody else on that team is a 5. That team is such a collection of misguided misfits, they really have no clue what matters. And if you feel up to it, check out everything I've ever said about Jermaine O'Neal and then agree with me that he was always the most overrated player in the league.

Can Milwaukee win it all? No. The Bogut injury was like adding a cinderblock to the Titanic - sure it'd help with the sinking but the difference is negligible. I'm interested to see this team age, and they need a Stackhouse replacement eventually, but it could all prove interesting.

Can Charlotte win it all? No, not even worth asking. But I do think Raymond Felton will get a ring someday. Maybe the only current Bobcat who I think that of.

Can Chicago win it all? No. They are almost in a rebuilding year and they are this good. Derick Rose and whoever they sign will be lethal.

WEST:
Can Los Angeles win it all? Yes, they can. You know why they can? Because they have not only Kobe, but they have Gasol (who, in my mind, is a borderline Hall of Famer). Odom and Fisher, at this point, are weighing them down. If Phil Jackson lives in the same neighborhood as Odom, I wouldn't be surprised if Odom has his mailbox knocked off the post by a baseball bat soon. He hates him.

Kobe is next-level dominant and Gasol is still getting better. I can tell you this, though, if the Point Guard Triples (Farmar, Brown, Fisher) are relied on, things will get ugly. Also, if Odom is more than 10% of the responsibility pie - the pie isn't going to go down so good. It'll be like the Pie in Stephen King's Thinner.

Can Dallas win it all? Tough/loaded question. I think they can. As a matter of fact, the 3-1 deficit doesn't change my mind that they can win it.

Carlisle has gone funky in his rotation, something has to give here, but the talent is there. They are very low on my possibility chart, but they have a chance.

Can Denver win it all? No. Not even close. I feel like on my list, even if they win tonight to make it 2-2, they are in the same group with Milwaukee, Chicago and Charlotte. This team is remarkably stupid. Their priorities are so out of whack. At times, Anthony makes me feel like Dumars is back wherever he is thinking, "Well, I shouldn't have taken Darko, but maybe Carmelo isn't my guy...

Also, I think that they were distracted by George Karl, who hopefully recovers famously, but did drag them down a bit by being an unwanted center of attention.

Can Phoenix win it all? Not really - they are the single biggest enigma in this whole tournament. Nash is capable, still, of being a Championship point guard. I Just don't like relying on Dudley and Channing Frye. They can't win it all, but they can be a major

Can Utah win it all? I think they may be able to. Logic says no chance at all - with Okur and Kirilenko being hurt, and they are facing the Nuggets in round 1. But, now it is 3-1, and they look better, and better, and better. Derron Williams is forcing Chauncey into a Time Machine, in both directions. He is making Chauncey look very old, and he is making Chauncey look back and say, "when did Derron steal my game from me?"

Williams is hittine 3's, running the floor, playing defense, etc. Jerry Sloan is a mastermind. I never liked him, I never liked anything about the Jazz, but he just gets his team to play incredible basketball, and the crowd there is outrageously effective. Will the Jazz win it all, I can say with nearly 100% certainty, "NO", but could they? I think they can.

Can San Antonio win it all? Yes. They absolutely can. I am so certain that they can. I am so positive that the unit as constructed may actually be in the best possible position to win it all in the West. Yes, I think they are favorites at this point, 4 games into the playoff.

San Antonio has Tim Duncan. Tim Duncan is arguably the most successful player in the NBA today. However, the key learning about the Spurs is when Tim Duncan has an off game, they still win. They showed me so much fight the other night when they got into a knockdown, drag-out War with the Mavericks, and ended up on the bright side of a bloody battle.

They keep their heads on a swivel, and they have a coach who is just absolutely perfect for that team. Parker, Manu & Duncan are phenomenal, but the presence of Hill, Blair & McDyess cannot be discounted. Ask me today who is going to win it all, and The Spurs are my answer.

Can Portland win it all. No. I don't even like talking about them. I don't hate them, but even with Camby I think they are boring to watch, and they just aren't good enough. Can't that answer be the answer sometimes? "You just aren't good enough..."

Can Oklahoma City win it all? Please don't ask me this question. I am currently in a state of being very irrational.

One thing I know is that you can't fake chemistry. I think I have learned in my life that you don't 100% have to have chemistry to win, but if you try to fake it, it won't work. The only teams with pure chemistry this season, in my estimation, are the Cavaliers (and that is dwindling), the Spurs, the Thunder and possibly the Magic.

But the Thunder's chemistry is in a lab coat, with beakers and bunson burners all over the place. At this point they are mad scientists. Chemistry doesn't just keep people happy, chemistry makes normal players turn into complete badasses. Their bench is so deep, and so badass, and I don't even think they are that physically gifted, or at least NBA-gifted. Jeff Green has turned into a supermachine, a defensive player with the confidence of a Hall of Famer. He is so quietly destroying the Lakers with all the intangibles that I am starting to think he is in his early 30's, and somehow had a Face/Off transplant with Pippen from the mid 90's.

I question every thing about their success, but it is in your face and visible and tangible. Do I care why it is happening so fast, not really - it's too enjoyable.

Can they win it all? They are the 1 team that I would say "No, not really, they can't," but at the same time I'm thinking, "they just might, though."

Quick side note, the thought of a 7 game Spurs v. Thunder series is so compelling to me. Never before in the history of the NBA would there be a series that would be more like watching a puppy (durant) and an old dog (Duncan) battle each other. The old dog would enjoy it for a while, then start to get real grumpy about it, and either give in entirely, or give that one strong bark and bite like old dogs do. Someone would get the message, I just don't know who it is yet.

___________________________________________

Summary of my "who could/can win the NBA Finals...

These teams absolutely can:

Orlando, Boston, Los Angeles, San Antonio, Oklahoma City*

These teams are so close, but can't:

Dallas, Utah

These teams cannot win it:

Cleveland, Atlanta, Miami, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Chicago, Phoenix, Portland

This team deserves a category of its own b/c they are so unlikeable and I want to pretend the GM is reading this and feels bad about being in his own category:
Denver

*admitted irrationality - but look at what they are doing. Do you see what they are doing?