...Prognosticating...

At least we all know that Punxatawney Phil is a joke. I mean, we approach the whole process knowing that its just a funny, silly thing that we do to pass the time, a social norm that has grown to entertain and amuse us. That's nice.

Slightly down the ladder in terms of respectable prediction are weatherpeople in general. The countless examples of being flat out wrong far outnumber any examples of useful prediction. Basically their roles in our lives is a function of advertising space on Local News channels - they are not needed, and they essentially should exist to only let us know if there is a hurricane, tornado, or other natural disaster, weather-related, they can warn us of. Anything outside of that is frivolous, but we've accepted them.

And at the bottom of the prediction food chain are sports analysts. These are the worst because their accountability isn't low, it's next to nothing. Who is keeping track of what they say? Besides Justin, Trav & Myself, nobody really ever pays attention to how wrong these guys are basically all the time, yet they continue to predict, and we continue to be entertained by it.

But why are we entertained by it? What does it bring us to hear two "experts" tell me, before the season has even started, that the Packers and Ravens are going to meet in the Super Bowl. Guess what, they aren't. Nobody knows who is going to be in the Super Bowl - in fact, the biggest NFL experts in the Universe only serve to bring their credibility down by selecting a Super Bowl matchup.

This past weekend, Lindsey Davenport was doing analysis for the US Open and when asked who would win between Wozniacki and Sharapova, she shook her head and in true Davenport fashion just said, "I don't do that." That is the most refreshing analysis I think I have ever heard.

"I don't do that," would serve everyone well. Each Sunday for a 1/2 hour before gametime we listen to a collection of unaccountable blowhards (i hate that word, but thats what they are) sit on the sets of ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, etc and tell us who will win each game and why. We see their records, usually around or sub .500, and I am sure statistical analysis will show that they are literally worthless. They are a worthless experiment.

I have grown so uncomfortable with the, "so what do you think is going to happen?" question, or the "who is going to win?" question. I don't know. Nobody knows. Everyone. Nobody knows. Lets talk about something else. I am going to start taking the Davenport Approach, as I am coining it...."I don't do that," will be a common phrase you'll hear from me.

Except when it comes to ultimate. I'll take Red Tide over Zebra Muscles any day of the week.

...Variety...

I too often blog about the NBA. Not that there are rules, but if I want to get the attention of even 30% of my friends, I should talk about other things. I used to talk about politics more, but honestly the social media policy at work is scaring me off of that, as strange as that may sound. Even writing that sentence scares me a little. But I do love me some Big Brother, I really do.

So I figured I'd sorta just rant, Dennis Miller style, about all the different things that have interested me over the past few weeks. I know this is lame, and not articulate, but I'm feeling the urge to just put things down.

Straws

I am not a "They don't make 'em like they used to" kind of guy. I like change, progress, evolution, I like when things go in a different direction. One thing I don't like, however, are straws nowadays. I don't know what it is, if its the material of the paper sheath, or the material of the straw, but straws are harder to open, and they bend/break more easily than they used to.

I interact with straws a few times a week for iced coffee, so this may be a Dunkin Donuts issue, and I cringe that it most likely was a cost-saving measure, dropping the price of straws from .008 cents to .005 cents per straw worldwide, and it results in my crimping 40% of the straws I open and making it so I get equal parts Air and French Vanilla on every sip. This aggression on behalf of Dunkies won't stand.

Actually, it will stand quite easily, I have no leverage.

Nyjer Morgan

This is about baseball, and I'll keep it short, but this guy is bonkers! I don't have an opinion of him personally beyond that, but this guy is going to be my poster child for why throwing at batters is the single biggest nonsense thing in sports. It has no lasting benefit, it doesn't serve any purpose besides perpetuating some kind of false aggression, and it has no place in civilized sports - its like brawling in hockey but with less logic.

Morgan is completely nuts, but the reality is that the pitcher has said he threw at him partially b/c he didn't like that Morgan stole with a lead - that kind of thing drives me crazy. There isn't nearly as much of that in the NBA or NFL as there is in baseball - I swear to gosh so much crap comes out of baseball b/c these guys are playing a boring sport. Anyway, Morgan is crazy, baseball is silly, and fights make me queasy.

Jobs

I saw an analyst this morning on CNN that was saying she was shocked that there hasn't been an uptick in hirings in the marketplace. She said that temporary or part-time/freelance work is increasing, and she was stunned that companies weren't yet offering the full-time benefits route.

This is something that someone in the business has trouble seeing, but some of us outside of the business can see so easily. What business am I referring to? Simply put, the business of Greed.

If you are running a company, and you are driven by getting the shareholders more money, this economic downturn is the greatest thing for you. You have a 2 year built-in excuse for poor performance, which may be justified. Your company is no longer judged by the last 24 months, but by the next 24 months, which is great. As a private company, you have no incentive to increase your workforce - the reality that millions of hard working people need, and want, jobs isn't your responsibility.

Of course companies are hiring freelancers, of course they aren't paying benefits. The reality is there isn't enough work to go around for all of us to sustain our current lives - the myth of being busy at work all the time (for other people, of course) is something that we can't afford to let go of, so we act shocked when corporations can get the same output/input from an employer on 20 hours as they did on 40 hours.

The whole algorithm of what its going to take from a workforce/headcount perspective is changing.

The Mosque

I really don't have any intentions of discussing this beyond the fact that this is one of those times where people who are in charge, the leadership of this country, New York City, and even neighborhood level folks, need to stop considering the voice of every individual and what they think is right, and simply act.

My personal opinion is that Obama should step in, and become more vocal than he ever has been, about his feelings on this, and apply a pressure that has been unseen on the local level, prior to this. I would have the same opinion of G.W. Bush was in office - the person leading this country has to stand for something, and in the absence of standing for something vocally and without question, confusion reigns. Even if I don't agree with what the result is, courage in conviction and believing your own honesty is what matters. What this has all turned into is so sad, so analytically depressing, and it doesn't need to be. Someone either make this thing happen, or not happen, but lets stop dancing.

Dairy Queen

For the past 10 or 12 years or so, I decided to get Blizzards. Probably on average, 1 time per year, I'd get a Blizzard at Dairy Queen. When I was young, they were so unique - candies mixed with delicious-ish ice cream, what can beat that. Cookie Dough, Snickers, M&M's, Reeses...each flavor was so awesome. Then I had Nerds, and it was gross, but I pretended to like it.

Then I tried other flavors, I can't recall what they are, but it was always just "too much"... A blizzard is just "too much."

A few weeks ago I decided to go to my old standby - a combination at Dairy Queen I hadn't gotten since, oh I don't know, 1988? Swirl Soft Serve, cone, cherry dip.

The Blizzard has absolutely nothing on that combo. The Blizzard is auto-tune to The Cherry Dip Swirl's Joni Mitchell. So delicious. The blizzard is dead - its time for everyone else to stop pretending they like it.

Apple TV

In the spirit of fairness, I want to give Apple it's due props on how awesome Apple TV is. I never wanted Apple TV before for a few reasons. (1) It didn't stream HD, which really is a reason to not make a product, but in true Apple form, they made it anyway. (2) Apple TV didn't have a deep enough library, and without the relationship with a company like Netflix, it felt very limiting.

They fixed both those things, and for only $99 bucks we're finally seeing the future of what TV will look like in a tangible way, and that is awesome. I'd be shocked if my house didn't have an Apple TV by October 1.

Mad Men

I can't speak for every show on TV, but right now I watch about 3 shows. I watch Mad Men religiously, I watch Survivor and I watch Hard Knocks. The rest is live sports, or sports highlights programming. If Real Time With Bill Maher is on, I'm all over it.

I know this though, the last 2 weeks of Mad Men have been unbelievable. There is 1 show that comes to mind that was as good as this one late in it's 4th season, and that is The Wire. The Sopranos was good, but had tailed off, and the same goes for The West Wing.

But watching an episode of Mad Men is an education, it reminds me of my film class days, or even my English class days, where an art form was created in a way that gave you license to take leaps, create thoughts, go beyond the notion that "I just need to be entertained." Listen, I have no problem with entertainment, and I have no issue if people only want to watch Reality TV, I won't fault you for it, (unless its Jersey Shore - I fault you for that) but for me, personally, I'm at a time where I want a TV show to mean something to me, and Mad Men takes care of everything.

I'm looking for a good Mad Men email buddy - someone who will let me rant about my favorite parts, the most disappointing parts, and the parts that made me want to scream with joy and/or agony. I'll be accepting applications in the form of an essay. You wanna be my buddy, you have to explain to me why you think Peggy hasn't left Sterling-Cooper-Draper-Price yet.

...Carter isn't like us...

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2010/08/carter_snubbed.html?p1=News_links

That article is rubbish.

Jimmy Carter went to N. Korea to get someone, and bring him back to the US. I don't think Carter, from what I know of him, cares about being snubbed, or worries about that type of nonsense. I don't know how, as a country, we voted Jimmy Carter President. That isn't an insult to him, it's an insult to us.

The guy isn't like anyone else in politics, ever. He is such a person of morals and passion and honesty to himself, and he is belittled daily by people who don't like him, and I don't think he cares. Well, Jimmy, I'll help you out there, too - I don't care either.

Carter went to get someone (who doesn't deserve to be "gotten"...stay the frick out of N. Korea, everyone), and he brought him home. The fact that he didn't have to shake hands with a psychotic dictator isn't going to ruin his day.

I don't know the man personally, and I could be wrong, but until he comes out and says, "BY GOSH, I'M SEETHING! I WAS SNUBBED. NOBODY SNUBS JIMMY C! NOBODY!", I'm not going to worry about his well being.

Col'nl Pritchard is projecting - his speculations say a lot more about his own personal values than it does about Carter's.

And yes, I'm prepared to take this all back when at 5:45 pm Carter admits he was, in fact, snubbed and seething about it.

...Dustin Johnson is weird...

I was on a boat coming home from Long Island when the drama unfolded at Kohler, and Dustin Johnson played himself out of the playoff yesterday afternoon.

I was looking at ESPN scorecenter, and I noticed that Watson & Kaymer were in the clubhouse at -11, while Johnson was getting to 18 at -12, in the lead.

Immediately, like every other golf fan in the world, I was brought to the memory of Johnson's brainless US Open collapse at Pebble Beach, shooting an 82 and blowing a big lead on the last day. I also was thinking about how hard 18 had been all weekend, and not a lot of birdies had happened there, but all he needed was par.

I am not going to criticize his decision to use driver, I think thats a completely personal "feel" type of thing, and if it was feeling good, then so be it.

But I am going to criticize what happened next. The dude needed par to win, and you can read all about what happened, but as a person who was watching the drama unfold via twitter, watching other pros feel for him, and journalists mock him, I thought that there'd be some kind of grey area, once I saw the replay. But I don't think there was.

That course, all weekend, was a display of unusual bunkers - rough cuts of grass meeting sand - a very unusual course for a major, but not for a PGA Championship really, and every mistake was greeted by a really odd look to the green, or odd lie in a surface you're not used to playing in.

I figured when I saw the replay there'd be some confusion as to whether or not this could be a bunker, but I was mistaken. I saw the replay and my first thought was, "jeez, that looks like a bunker to me!"

I understand that he put the ball into a gallery, and that there were people, stands, water bottles, even a turf mat covering that area, but each golfer is given the supplemental rules of golf at the tourney. Each golfer can read on a sheet in the clubhouse, almost explicitly, that this exact situation may occur.

There is a rules official nearby all the time. If he had just asked, it would have been clear. Heck, he didn't even NEED to ground his club, he chose to.

This isn't a situation where I feel bad for him, like if the ball moved after grounding the club, or if a bad lie was brought on by trampled spectator grass..

Johnson, in 2 majors this year, has been caught up in the moment mentally - he is doing the kind of thing we slay other athletes for, and I think we have that right. When Chris Webber called a timeout in the finals, when they didn't have one, he was wrong. When DeSean Jackson spiked the ball before he reached the end zone, when Leon Lett let Beebe strip the ball in the Super Bowl, we all mocked the athlete, and deservedly so.

I'm not saying we should pile on Johnson, b/c I think he clearly has an issue with handling pressure (And for crying out loud, if all you need is par, why in the world are you BOMBING a 4 iron out of a bunker/waste area instead of just trying to lay it up, chip and putt for the win?! And what the deuce happened on that putt for par? He missed it by way more than a pro should miss it by?!

Johnson collapsed, mentally. He isn't a victim of the rules, he's a victim of himself. You can feel bad about it on a human level, but don't feel like the game cheated him, b/c it didn't. This is a great example of how fair Golf really is as a game.